Uncertainty is present in all phases of climate change research and applications, from the physical science (e.g., projections of future climate) to the impacts through to the effort to make decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation across different temporal and spatial scales
While there have been attempts to integrate all facets of uncertainty in the problem of climate change, there remain important gaps. In this theme we plan to fill some of these gaps in an educational mode. Such gaps include:
1. methods that facilitate consistent treatment of uncertainties in different parts of the climate change problem,
2. how to account for additional factors outside quantifiable ones that contribute to uncertainty in decision making,
3. accounting for the effect of cognitive biases that prevent consistency from one discipline to the next, and
4. critical differences in the end-to-end academic process vs. reality (i.e., practical application vs. theoretical approaches).
The point of departure for the theme will be decision making under uncertainty, and the assessment of the other uncertainties (in impacts, the physical climate system, and projections of future concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols) will be brought into the mix based on the landscape of decision making. Therefore, this theme will embrace all aspects of uncertainty in climate change research, providing a pedagogic whole for students, post-docs, and early career scientists interested in any and all aspects of climate change. One central focus will be the need to understand the strands of uncertainty throughout the climate change problem in order to maximize effectiveness in any one area.
Who is the Workshop For?
The workshop is geared for graduate students, post-docs, and early career scientists who have interests in understanding the integrated uncertainty problem in climate change, or disciplinarians working in particular parts of the uncertainty problem who want to better understand how their research fits into the integrated whole. Participants are welcome from a wide variety of disciplines: statistics, climate modeling and analysis, climate impacts, decision making, policy, communication, and social science concerned with vulnerability and climate change.
(Source:https://www2.image.ucar.edu/event/uncertainty-climate-change-research-integrated-approach )
